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Final forecast for final 5A playoff spots

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I shared with you last week my scenario for the final two weeks of the regular season and playoff positioning in Class 5A football and this week is just about where we thought things would be.

5A-1 and 5A-2 are the simplest of the two to figure out this week as we head into the final week of the regular season.

5A-1
Playoff Bound: Guthrie, Carl Albert, Deer Creek, Ada
Still Alive: None
Key Games: Deer Creek at Ada

As projected Guthrie, Carl Albert and Ada each won in week 9 and with that that Guthrie is the district champion and Carl Albert is second. Both will host first round playoff games and we know for sure the Titans will be hosting Ardmore. Guthrie is highly likely to play Durant. More on that in a moment.

To complete 5A-1, Ada travels to Deer Creek this week with the winner finishing third and the loser fourth. The winner will go on the road and take on the Duncan Demons while the loser must travel to Lawton MacArthur.

5A-2
Playoff Bound: Lawton Mac, Duncan, Ardmore
Still Alive: Durant, Chickasha
Key Games: Durant at Capitol Hill, Chickasha at Duncan
Scenario: Lawton Mac is first, Duncan is second, Ardmore is third. Durant is fourth with a win or Chickasha loss. Chickasha is fourth with a win AND Durant loss.

In 5A-2, Lawton Mac won the district with their win this past week secured the top spot, not that we were worried about that. I projected an Ardmore win and proved to be wrong with Duncan getting the win and the No. 2 spot. The loss drops Ardmore to the third spot and on the road in the playoffs beginning with Carl Albert. Duncan will have to wait to see who wins the Ada-Deer Creek game.

The final spot in 5A-2 will come down to Durant and Chickasha. A Durant win over Capitol Hill (1-7), or a Chickasha loss, secures the spot to play the BlueJays. Chickasha needs a Durant loss and a win in Duncan to pull the upset.

5A-3
Playoff Bound: McAlester, Tulsa Kelley, Tulsa Washington, Collinsville
Still Alive: None
Key Games: Tulsa Washington at McAlester, Tulsa Kelley at Collinsville
Tiebreakers: McAlester (+61), Tulsa Kelley (+57), Tulsa Washington (+42), Collinsville (-17)
Scenario: McAlester is first with a win, second with a loss and Kelley loss or loss by less than 10 points and Kelley win. Kelley is no worse than second with a win, could be first on tiebreaker with a win and McAlester loss. Would still be second with a loss AND Washington loss. Would be fourth with a loss and Washington win. Washington is no worse than third. Would be first with a win coupled with a Kelley loss. Would be second with win by at least 10 points and Kelley victory. Collinsville is no worse than fourth. Could be third with win and Washington win.

Not a whole lot of surprises from 5A-3 in week 9 as we expected, but that will change as Booker T travels to McAlester. The Buffalo’s will be the favorites and with a win will take the district title, but a loss and it really stirs things up.

I suspect McAlester will keep things simple for us and get the win over the Hornets along with Bishop Kelley handling business with Collinsville. If that is the case, McAlester finishes first, Bishop Kelley second, Booker T third and Collinsville fourth.

5A-4
Playoff Bound: Pryor, Tulsa East Central, Tulsa Central, Coweta
Key Games: Tulsa Central at Pryor, Tulsa Edison at Coweta
Scenario: Pryor is first. East Central is second. Coweta is third with a win or Central loss. Fourth with a loss and Central win. Central is third with a win AND Coweta loss, fourth otherwise

I imagine not many people outside of Pryor, Oklahoma thought Pryor would be the district champions going into the final week of the regular season, but that is exactly what it is in 5A-4.

East Central has solidified the second spot. The only question is who will be third? Coweta or T. Central? Coweta will be heavy favorites to defeat Edison, but the game to watch this week in the district is Central at Pryor.

Could be a trap game for Pryor knowing they are the district champions and have nothing to play for with the exception of playing well going into the playoffs. With that said, I am picking Pryor and Coweta to win.

Chris Evans 1st Round Playoff Projections:

Guthrie vs Durant
East Central vs Booker T

McAlester vs T. Central
Duncan vs Deer Creek

Lawton Mac vs Ada
Bishop Kelley vs Coweta

Pryor vs Collinsville
Carl Albert vs Ardmore

Bold detects exact spot

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Categories: Guthrie Football
  1. November 2, 2011 at 1:43 pm

    Its will be nice to see BTW ot TEC have to come to our side of the state.

    Being a Carl Albert fan i am looking forward to the Pryor trip. it is one of the only 5A stadiums i have not been to.

    Easy to see it should be Guthrie – McAlester and Carl Albert – Lawton Mac.

    It would be great to see a Carl Albert – Guthrie championship. The two great programs have never met in the playoffs.

  2. bhawk46
    November 3, 2011 at 7:12 pm

    Any truth to the rumor Guthrie has an ineligible Player? If so Guthrie will not be in the playoffs

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