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First round 5A playoff projections: Guthrie vs Durant

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Oklahoma High School football has come down to the final few weeks of the regular season. This is where teams start to truly understand what they need to do, or what they need to happen away from their game for playoff positioning.

For Class 5A football only two spots are what you can call certain locks with Guthrie (5A-1) and Lawton MacArthur (5A-2) winning their perspective district.

In 5A-3 McAlester and Booker T. will play for the district title in two weeks, in McAlester, and in the unpredictable 5A-4 district, a trio of teams (Pryor, T. Central, T. E. Central) will likely have to wait late Friday of next week to see how the standings finally draw out.

Heading into the final two weeks of the regular season, 5A has three teams that have not tasted defeat: Guthrie, Lawton Mac and McAlester. This will be a good reminder to remind all that all the Carl Albert state championships they have piled up, not one of those did the Titans go undefeated.

I will begin in 5A-1 where we know who is making the playoffs, but not quite sure where they will be position. We do know Guthrie has clinched a spot and that Carl Albert, Deer Creek and Ada will be in the playoffs.

With a win over Western Heights or Southeast, both at home, Guthrie will clinch the district title for the third time in 11 seasons.

Carl Albert and Deer Creek will likely play for the No. 2 spot of the district this week in Midwest City, although Ada still has their sights on that No. 2 and the home first round playoff spot. The Cougars need a Deer Creek win over Carl Albert to go with them needing wins over Noble and Deer Creek, but still yet will need some help in the district points if it should come down to a 3-way tie.  

I project the Titans will win out (Deer Creek and Noble) to claim the No. 2 spot and Deer Creek going on the road to defeat Ada for the third spot to leave the Cougars as the fourth team in the district. With that said, there will be 0% of me surprised if Ada were to win that week 10 game with the Antlers.

Much like Guthrie, Lawton Mac has qualified and will need at least one win in the next two weeks (Capitol Hill and Northwest Classen) to win the district. Ardmore and Duncan play this Friday evening with the winner claiming the second spot in 5A-2 while the loser will likely wrap up the third spot after week 10. The final spot in the district currently has three teams with 2-3 records: Durant, Chickasha and Altus.

Should be one heck of a game between Ardmore and Duncan. The Demons always seem to get better as the season goes along, but Ardmore is battled tested by playing Ada, Carl Albert, McAlester and Lawton Mac to begin the season despite the 1-3 start. I am going with the Tigers in a close one.

Durant has already defeated Chickasha and Altus this season for tie-breaker scenarios and have two games left in which they will be highly favored in (Northwest Classen and Capitol Hill) so it is all but safe to put the Lions back in at the last team to punch their 5A-2 ticket.

So my first round project match-ups on the west side of the state will feature Durant visiting Guthrie, Deer Creek going to Ardmore, Ada making the trip to Lawton Mac and Duncan traveling back to Carl Albert.

East Side has more questions than answers

As I mention earlier, Booker T and McAlester will decide the district title in the last week of the season so we really will not know much more after week nine. A McAlester loss really stirs things up as it will then likely come down to points between one-loss teams in McAlester, Booker T and Bishop Kelley for the top three spots.

The final spot will come down to Collinsville and Skiatook, although Collinsville has the head-to-head tie breaker.

I saved the 5A-4 district last not because it is A-4, but it is the one district that can go a lot of ways.

We do know Pryor has clinched a playoff spot. We also know T. Central, T. E. Central and Coweta are likely will fill out the playoff list. Claremore is on the outside looking in. Not completely ruled out, but will have to have many things play out in their favor that they do not control.

Pryor and Tulsa Central control their destiny for the district title. Central has the biggest hill to climb with Coweta this week and then Pryor next week.

East Central should hold court in the last two weeks (Grove and Claremore) while Coweta with two losses is likely to be on the road in the first round.

Following this week the scenario’s become a touch more clear, but the east side will need all 10 weeks to decide the first round playoff positioning.

 So my first round project match-ups on the east side of the state will feature T. Central at McAlester, Booker T at Tulsa East Central, Collinsville at Pryor and Coweta at Bishop Kelley.

Class 5A Districts through 8 weeks:

5A-1                   Dist    All      PF      PA
x-Guthrie (+63)        5-0     8-0     337      63
Carl Albert (+57)      4-1     7-1     283      97
Deer Creek (+45)       4-1     7-1     317     125
Ada (+10)              3-2     4-4     270     241
Noble (-15)            2-3     2-6     165     272
El Reno (-40)          1-4     1-7     172     258
Western Heights (-46)  1-4     1-7     105     374
Southeast (-74)        0-5     2-6     192     329

5A-2                   Dist    All      PF      PA
x-Lawton Mac (+75)     5-0     8-0     305      91
Ardmore (+45)          4-1     5-3     280     130
Duncan (+45)           4-1     5-3     257     104
Durant (-15)           2-3     3-5     146     203
Chickasha (-15)        2-3     4-4     162     256
Altus (-15)            2-3     3-5     135     231
NW Classen (-60)       0-4     2-5     113     211
Capitol Hill (-60)     0-4     1-6      70     327

5A-3                   Dist    All      PF      PA
x-McAlester (+46)      4-0     8-0     337     140
BT Washington (+42)    4-1     4-4     160     134
Tulsa Kelley (+42)     3-1     5-2     243     144
Collinsville (-27)     2-2     3-4      99     161
Skiatook (-12)         1-3     3-4     150     168
Tulsa Memorial (-40)   1-3     3-4     116     242
Tulsa Hale (-51)       0-5     0-8     119     291

5A-4                   Dist    All      PF      PA
x-Pryor (+52)          5-0     7-1     199      72
Tulsa Central (+59)    4-1     7-1     280      73
East Central (+27)     4-1     7-1     235      86
Coweta (+20)           3-2     4-4     164     121
Claremore (-12)        2-3     3-5     132     156
Grove (-31)            1-4     3-5     156     232
Tahlequah (-45)        1-4     3-5     141     281
Tulsa Edison (-70)     0-5     0-8      64     297

x-clinched playoff berth

**District standings provided by Coaches Aid

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Categories: Guthrie Football
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